Recording Now Available – ILMA LubeTrends Virtual Town Hall: What's Coming Up in 2023?
If you missed the chance to join us live or just want to review what we covered with a recording of the virtual town hall and the expanded slide deck. Our panel of industry experts—including ILMA President Ann Ball; Jim Eggenschwiler, Director of Global Trade with Trinity Consultants Co.; John Howell, President of GHS Resources; and ILMA General Counsel Jeff Leiter—gave some great insights into what’s ahead for the rest of 2023 and beyond. Get your head around the latest challenges and opportunities affecting lubricants businesses, including emerging plastics legislation, chemicals regulation, supply chain issues, the R&D tax credit, trade issues and more.
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The Impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs) on the Global Lubricants Market
The consumer vehicle market is changing, and battery electric vehicles are penetrating the marketplace even faster than predicted. The growth is expected to have a negative volumetric impact on the lubricants industry, displacing demand for traditional automotive oils, greases and fluids that go into the vehicle, as well as metalworking fluids and other lubricants used to make engines and other parts.
To get a handle on this trend and its impact on members, ILMA commissioned a study from Kline & Co. that quantifies the potential outcomes of increasing electrification. The results were presented during two #LubeTrends virtual town halls at the end of 2022.
- MWF consumption per vehicle produced will decrease by 3% for hybrid electric vehicles and 33% for battery-electric vehicles globally.
- PCMO demand will decline in the U.S. by 45% by 2040 under the likely scenario of EV adoption (50% EV sales by 2035) and by 68% by 2040 under an aggressive adoption scenario (50% EV sales by 2030).
- There are opportunities for several EV fluids, including engine oil, transmission fluids, coolants and greases. For battery-electric vehicles, the study estimates a compound annual growth rate of 19.5% for transmission fluids, 20% for coolants and 19.7% for greases by 2040 under a likely EV adoption scenario.
- Europe and North America are similar in terms of technologies, stages of development and projected adoption rates of EVs. While Europe has the most aggressive EV sales penetration targets, the fleet of vehicles turns over at a slower rate than in North America.
- PCMO demand volume in Asia-Pacific and Latin America will continue to climb due to lower EV penetration.
- Asia will lead the EV fluids market for the next two decades.
Watch the town hall recordings below and view the full report to learn more.
New Insights into EVs and the Lubricant and MWF Landscape
Recorded November 16, 2022
Market Impacts in Europe, Asia and Latin America
Recorded December 14, 2022